Training Camp Round Up | Week 3

Photo Credit: David Richard, Associated Press

Training Camp Round Up | Week 3

By Taylor Towle (@realffbandit)

Jaguars Open Up QB Competition

After a(nother) poor performance on Thursday night against the Buccaneers, Blake Bortles may have lost his grip on the Jaguars QB1 position. Chad Henne came in and played with the first team unit after Bortles had several underthrows to wide open targets. While Henne didn’t look markedly better, commentators noted how much more confident the team looked. Bortles also refused to speak to media after the game.

Advice: Doug Marrone has been designing this team to hide the flawed QB position by committing to a ground-and-pound attack and trying to build a stingy defense. Bortles doesn’t truly fit the game manager role, even on a good day, so installing a stopgap QB like Henne may ultimately be the best move if the Jags desire to be taken seriously. For everything that Henne isn’t, he does possess a sense of composure that Bortles simply does not, which could help instill some life into the supporting cast. Bortles’ last remaining positive quality as a fantasy QB was that he was a starting QB on a team with a bad defense. Both of those points seem to be changing this year, so if you’re an owner and can get anything at all for him at this point, do it and do it fast.

Chris Carson Running with the First Team Offense

After showing well in his latest preseason game versus the Vikings, and with CJ Prosise and Thomas Rawls banged up, 7th round pick Chris Carson split time with Eddie Lacy and took some looks running with the Seahawks starters on Friday. While Lacy didn’t have a terrible performance, Carson was clearly the better back, looking notably more determined and explosive.

Advice: This makes two consecutive strong performances from Carson, and the latest came with the first team unit. The Seahawks have a knack for talking up their players throughout the offseason, but Carson appears to be worthy of the praise. A bigger back coming out of Oklahoma State, his stats haven’t been incredibly impressive in the preseason (66 yards on 15 touches and 2 TDs), but he has flashed multiple times and is quickly rising up the depth chart. All three running backs ahead of Carson have serious injury or performance risks, so he appears to be a strong bet to see some playing time heading into the regular season. Scoop him up if he’s somehow still on the wire, and feel free to shoot a future 4th, or even 3rd, if an owner is looking to sell based on the hype.

Ryan Kelly to Start the Season on IR

The Colts starting center, Ryan Kelly will have surgery to repair a bone defect in his foot. While Kelly isn’t exactly a fantasy name, this impacts an Indianapolis team that has not only had its share of offensive line woes but will likely be starting their backup QB for the early part of the season.

Advice: In addition to this news, coordinator Rob Chudzinski admitted this week that the playbook will need to be tailored for backup QB Scott Tolzien while Andrew Luck is sidelined. This may suggest more short passing and quick-hitting routes, a concept that should be further emphasized with Kelly now missing significant time. This news doesn’t bode well for playmaker TY Hilton to succeed as his typical deep threat self. Savvy owners should be prepared to shoot out some lower-than-normal offers for Hilton if he has a sluggish start to the season. Also, keep an eye on rookie Marlon Mack, who’s open field skills may be well-suited for check downs and dump offs. Mack has flashed in the preseason with 59 yards on 7 touches thus far and can make a Year 1 impact if he can carry that into the regular season.

Kenny Golladay Getting Reps with the First Team

The talk of the dynasty community is the Detroit rookie receiver who has drawn rave reviews all camp long and is now starting to reap the rewards with his coaching staff. Kenny Golladay was playing in three wide sets in practice this week, pushing Golden Tate into the slot.

Advice: Golladay has been dominating training camp, and after his performance in last week’s game (a near Twitter-breaking 3-54-2 line), he found himself in the starting lineup. Golladay’s stock has been soaring all offseason, and with good cause. It wouldn’t be surprising for a player who was taken in the 4th round of rookie drafts in June to be taken in the 1st round of rookie drafts in August. Owners are in a tricky spot when deciding whether to capitalize on the hype by turning their 4th round pick into a future 1st, or just keep riding the wave. Golladay looks poised to make at least some impact this season, so it’s unlikely his value dips below a future 1st for at least a few months. He’s worth holding through the first few weeks of the season to observe just how much his role can grow.

Rookie RBs Impress in Preseason Games

In addition to the aforementioned Mack, RBs Kareem Hunt, Tarik Cohen, Dalvin Cook, D'onta Foreman, Samaje Perine, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey all showed well in their second chance at genuine game action, averaging 70 yards on 8 touches amongst them. Often times, a hyped up rookie class will fail to live up to expectations, but this year’s RB class appears ready to pay off.

Advice: Owners have been anticipating big things from this crop of RBs for quite some time, and though it’s still early, things are looking good. Along with Cook and McCaffrey, Joe Mixon with the Bengals, and Leonard Fournette with the Jaguars are already seeing significant snaps with the first team units. Perine and Hunt appear to be quickly closing the gap on their incumbents and are likely to force a committee at the very least, if not outright take over the starting job at some point in the season. Though most likely not in a position to see significant playing time just yet, Kamara, Cohen, and Foreman have created big plays when given the opportunity and look ready to contribute when called upon--Kamara and Cohen as 3rd down or change of pace backs, and Foreman as a workhorse if Lamar Miller goes down with injury. All of these aforementioned rookie running backs are seeing their stock rise, but could be considered slight buy-highs worth the investment.

Your Last Chance to Acquire Dalvin Cook at a Reasonable Price

Photo Credit: Jim Mone, Associated Press

Your Last Chance to Acquire Dalvin Cook at a Reasonable Price

By Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL)

(Performance metrics were gathered from Player Profiler and ADP data was derived from Dynasty League Football)

Dalvin Cook’s dynasty value has been on a roller coaster since February. He started off as the “locked-in” #1 rookie pick in dynasty by many film grinders and college football fans. However, after flopping at the combine with a 71st percentile Height-Adjusted Speed Score, a 9th percentile Burst Score (Broad Jump & Vertical Jump), and a 10th percentile Agility Score (3-cone), his value tanked.

Dalvin Cook | PlayerProfiler.com

Due to Cook’s lackluster combine, he was being selected as the 2nd player off the board in rookie drafts behind Leonard Fournette. On draft day, the Minnesota Vikings decided to trade up in the 2nd round and select Cook with the 41st pick. Being drafted by the Vikings didn't help his value downfall; it cratered all the way down to 5th overall rookie pick. This is where it lies now, a startup ADP hovering around 38th overall as the RB13. Despite the drop in ADP, now is the perfect time to trade for Cook. Based on his cost and the role he will play for the Vikings this season, now may be the last chance you will have to acquire Dalvin Cook at a reasonable price.

Offensive Line Injuries

Comprehending Cook’s potential begins with understanding the Vikings 2016 season. Last season, the Minnesota Vikings had the most-injured offensive line in the NFL per Football Outsiders. Ultimately, they were a terrible unit because the fact they were injured. Per Cian Fahey (@Cianaf), the Minnesota Vikings were just one of two teams in the NFL to have zero of their linemen play 90% of offensive snaps last season. To support the notion that offensive line continuity is important, the two teams who had all five of their linemen play 90% of offensive snaps were the Falcons and Patriots. The Vikings added Mike Remmers and Riley Reiff to their offensive line and let go of ex-starters Matt Kalil and Brandon Fusco. If their offensive line stays healthy, they are projected to be a slightly above average unit. Going into this season, the Vikings offensive line is ranked 14th by Pro Football Focus and 17th by FantasyPros.

Schedule

Beyond improved offensive line play, the Vikings will go against the 5th-easiest opposing rushing defense schedule according to Sharp Football Stats' Rush DEF Blend. This metric combines rushing efficiency, explosive rushes, and RB pass efficiency.

Vikings Rush DEF Blend | Sharp Football Stats

Cook will encounter juicy matchups all year, as he is scheduled to play against defensive units projected in the bottom 10 of Rush DEF Blend seven times, and meets defensive units projected to be among the top 10 just three times. Combining this with the fact that the Vikings have the 2nd-easiest schedule versus opposing defenses, suggests the Vikings may have opportunities to execute their gameplan consistently and therefore, should not be forced to run or pass excessively.

Competition for Touches

Cook’s competition for touches this season is Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon. Many people were surprised when the Vikings drafted Dalvin Cook because they had just signed Latavius Murray to a 3-year, $15-million contract. Digging deeper into the details of it, you may see that Murray's contract is just a backup plan if Cook just doesn’t pan out, and includes only one year of guaranteed money. If Cook plays well, it’s highly unlikely the Vikings retain Murray past this season. He still figures to be Cook’s biggest competition for touches this season, but he’s been injured all offseason, but luckily was just activated off the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. Coach Mike Zimmer lacked confidence about Murray in a late July press conference when he said, “I haven’t seen Latavius other than on tape.” Comparing this to when offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur said, “you see him do a lot of things really well" and "he’s going to have a bright future” when referring to Cook, makes me wonder how much Murray will play, if at all. It seems unlikely that Murray carves out much of a role unless he impresses his coaches in these weeks leading up to the season, or if Cook begins to struggle.

Potential Usage

Besides having great reviews from coaches in practice, Cook had some good moments in his two preseason games. Some people don’t think preseason play should be considered, but monitoring snaps and usage on a team’s first few drives can give you an edge at understanding players and their respective teams. In his first preseason game, Cook had 5 carries for 13 yards and recorded 4 catches for 30 yards, with another catch that was called back for holding. While he wasn’t very efficient, he was utilized early and often, especially on "Sammy Sleeves'" favorite throw, the check down. In his second preseason game, Cook was once again used as the bell cow, racking up 7 carries for 40 yards and 1 catch for 10 yards. Through two preseason games so far, Cook has registered 17 touches in slightly over a half a game of snaps.

Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is implementing a zone-blocking scheme this season, something Cook was successful with at Florida State. Shurmur’s play calling also has the running back involved in the passing game by means of dump off and screen passes. With the combination of Sam Bradford’s lack of aggressiveness and Shurmur’s scheming, Cook should be involved in the passing game more than most would expect.

Many rookie running backs aren’t often involved in the passing game because they are inexperienced in pass protection. While this was said to be one of Cook’s weaknesses coming out of college, Graham Barfield’s (@GrahamBarfield) Yards Created studies show Cook ranked 4th-best in Pass Protection Execution Rate (PPE) among all 2017 draft-eligible running backs. He’s already shown a glimpse of these capabilities in his first preseason game after successfully picking up a blitzing linebacker. If he can continue to do this consistently, he should see a lot of playing time in 2017.

2017

Cook appears to be a bell cow running back who will start from week one, and dominate both the backfield rushing and receiving work for the Minnesota Vikings. Behind a mended offensive line, and forecasted to meet an easy opposing rush defense schedule, it's easy to project Dalvin Cook to have a solid rookie season. If projections were to become reality, come next offseason, his price would rise even higher. Cook is an ideal trade target at the moment because you could secure instant RB2 production from him this season and as a result, could make him a near lock for top 10 dynasty startup running back status next offseason. There are some owners who had their hand forced in dynasty rookie drafts this offseason when Dalvin Cook “fell” to them while they hoped for Christian McCaffrey or Joe Mixon. Offering a 2018 1st round rookie pick for Cook today is a proposal that may appear beneficial for both parties involved. Therefore, begin sending out similar offers as soon as possible because this may be the last time Cook can be acquired for a reasonable price.

Training Camp Roundup | Week 2

Photo Credit: Lynne Sladky, Associated Press

Training Camp Roundup | Week 2

By Taylor Towle (@realffbandit)

Quincy Enunwa Placed on Injured Reserve

Quincy Enunwa, perhaps the only semi-exciting product on the Jets offense this year, landed on his neck in team drills and was placed on season-ending-IR after a bulging disk was the diagnosis. Just 25 years old and coming off a mini-breakout year in 2016 with a 58-857-4 receiving line, Enunwa was pegged for WR1 status within the Jets offense. With this news, an already weak unit becomes one of the worst in recent memory on paper.

Advice: Unfortunately for Enunwa owners, this seems like a strong “take what you can get” scenario. Aside from the finicky nature of neck injuries, the timing couldn’t have been worse for the contract year wideout. Instead of proving his worth with a big breakout season, Enunwa will most likely want to jump ship in free agency, which means that he will be playing second or third fiddle for his new team. As for the rest of the Jets receiving options, rookie ArDarius Stewart is the most exciting name to watch and may be force-fed targets this year out of necessity. He should be well worth the price tag if you can pry him away from his owner’s hands at anything close to his rookie draft ADP in the mid-3rd round. Lastly, Austin Seferian-Jenkins has reportedly been dominating camp and is worth a flier if his value continues to remain similar to that of fellow tight ends Dwayne Allen and Jared Cook.

Dolphins Sign Jay Cutler / Jarvis Landry Under Investigation

Two impactful events occurred at Dolphins camp two weeks ago. First, they somehow convinced Jay Cutler to unretire for a $10-million contract and a chance to lose to Bill Belichick two more times. Second, allegations of a domestic violence case emerged against Jarvis Landry, though they have been refuted by both Landry and the alleged victim.

Advice: While both pieces of news in Miami are not particularly concerning (provided the allegations are false), Landry owners probably don’t feel good right now. Cutler is known as a QB who likes to chuck it, which doesn’t necessarily play to Landry’s strengths. The allegations also prompted Miami’s front office to come out and say that they aren’t pressing to re-sign Landry. Potentially diminished stats in the short-term, and a longer-term outlook that includes a potential change of teams, paint a cloudy picture for Landry’s dynasty stock at the least. Landry always seems to be hovering just below the top WRs in terms of dynasty value, but there are safer/higher upside guys in his tier, like Stefon Diggs and Terrelle Pryor, that could make sense to target. Making a move for one of them should allow you to jump ship on Landry and gain an additional flier in the process.

Martavis Bryant is Conditionally Reinstated

After dragging their feet on a decision for most of the offseason, the NFL finally gave Martavis Bryant permission to practice with the team and play in preseason games. It’s unclear what extra hoops Bryant will have to jump through, if any, to carry this reinstatement into the regular season. For now, it looks like Bryant should immediately take his place practicing with the Steelers first team unit.

Advice: One of the most dangerous players in the league, Bryant has averaged two touchdowns every three games over the course of his suspension-plagued career. After a full year out of the league, he has shown commitment towards getting back on the field by staying clean and passing the myriad of tests he's encountered to gain reinstatement. His current ADP is bogged down by the possibility of further suspensions, so an ADP of 45th overall is probably too low for him given the recent news. Bryant owners have most likely been sitting by his side for quite some time, which will make it even harder to pry him away. If you’re looking to sell, don’t settle for anything less than a highly regarded prospect or two.

Sammy Watkins Traded to the Rams

In a move seemingly out of nowhere, the Buffalo Bills threw their name into the AFC East tank fest by shipping away their star wideout Sammy Watkins to Hollywood for an unheralded corner in EJ Gaines and a 2018 2nd round draft pick. Watkins joins an equally sad group of receivers on the Rams and should retain his alpha dog status in the passing game, albeit with a significant downgrade at QB.

Advice: On first inspection, this may seem like a blow to Watkins’ value, since he’s now catching passes from Jared Goff. Goff showed little to no positives in his first season in the league, though he was thrust into a near impossible situation with a poor offensive line, an ineffective ground game, and a lame-duck coach. Theoretically, Watkins should be heavily targeted in new coach Sean McVay’s more exciting offense, which is an upgrade from the Bills notoriously run-heavy approach. However, the quality of those targets drops significantly unless Goff can take some steps forward. Watkins has shown an ability to dominate games when on the field, and the warmer weather may help him stay on the field more often. A panicky owner may be looking to sell at a discount, but ultimately Watkins’ value probably doesn’t change much with this move. He should remain in that second grouping of young wideouts alongside Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins, and the production will come when he’s on the field.

Jordan Matthews Traded to the Bills

This trade happened nearly in conjunction with the one above and involved the Eagles sending Jordan Matthews and a 3rd round pick to Buffalo for Ronald Darby. The Eagles addressed their biggest need by receiving a young potential lockdown cornerback, and the Bills added to their army of big slot WRs with a player who has had one of the more productive starts to their career in league history. Unfortunately, Matthews promptly injured his chest in his first practice with the Bills and is considered week-to-week.

Advice: Ultimately, this is probably good news for Jordan Matthews. The Eagles were obviously not going to sign him and with Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith in the mix, he was no longer going to be the main target in the passing game. In Buffalo, he should see just as much opportunity, if not more. The only question mark, aside from the injury timeline, is where he will play. Veteran Anquan Boldin, rookie Zay Jones and Matthews all do their best work in the same big slot position and Matthews struggled last year when given the chance to play outside. Still, at this point in each player’s respective career, Matthews is the most talented option the Bills now have, so he should carve out a productive role attached to a good QB in Tyrod Taylor. Matthews’ value has always been a point of contention in the dynasty community, but it’s likely that if you own him, you’re a fan of this new relocation. His current ADP of around 80th overall is probably about right, though certainly if you can obtain him for similarly valued players like CJ Prosise and Eddie Lacy, you should benefit. Owners quick to react to the injury may even sell at a further discounted price.

Sitting in the Dynasty Cat Bird Seat

Photo Credit: Mark Zaleski, Associated Press

Sitting in the Dynasty Cat Bird Seat

By Mike Randle (@FtsyWarriorMike)

Vice Presidents, assistant principals, and NFL backups all have one thing in common: they all sit in the catbird seat, ready to ascend to the top.

Dynasty owners have the burden of analyzing players from a longitudinal view. While under 25-year-old stars such as Odell Beckham Jr., Marcus Mariota, and Ezekiel Elliott have already broken out, dynasty targets that are patiently waiting in the background may be the most important. Those players who are merely one injury, trade, or season away from fantasy prominence, are the true dynasty football treasures.

Here are the top six dynasty football values, under the age of 25, who are simply biding their time and sitting in the “Dynasty Cat Bird Seat.”

(Performance metrics from Player Profiler)

RB Derrick Henry (Tennessee)

Henry remains the most talented backup running back in the NFL. He is ready to ascend to an ideal fantasy situation if anything were to happen to Titans lead running back, DeMarco Murray. At 6’3” 247 lbs., Henry has the quintessential bell cow RB body type. He possesses a 116.3 Speed Score (97th percentile) and a 127.9 Burst Score (88th percentile) which is exceptional for a player of his size. Henry was a true workhorse at Alabama and he will run behind a strong Tennessee offensive line, currently ranked fourth by Pro Football Focus.

Henry already proved his toughness as a runner by averaging 3.1 yards per attempt against stacked defensive fronts last season. Most importantly, Henry is tethered to another under 25-year-old star in quarterback Marcus Mariota. His Average Draft Position (ADP) has climbed steadily throughout the summer, and he is the only definitive RB1 among current NFL backup running backs. For dynasty owners, if DeMarco Murray stumbles or becomes injured, Derrick Henry is pure fantasy football gold.

RB Marlon Mack (Indianapolis)

Location. Location. Location. The South Florida product landed in the ideal fantasy football spot as a 21-year-old running back. He joins an explosive Colts offense led by the 27-year-old premier dynasty quarterback, Andrew Luck.

The Colts backfield competition will be easy for him to supplant. Veteran Frank Gore has a long career with sustained success but enters the 2017 season at 34 years of age. While Robert Turbin has enjoyed an impressive spring, he has totaled 80 carries only once in his six NFL seasons. Mack’s workout metrics provide a great window into his dynasty potential. He ran a 4.50-second 40-Yard Dash (75th percentile), owns a 103.9 Speed Score (73rd percentile), and a 122.9 Burst Score (71st percentile). Mack is also a legitimate three-down running back, garnering a College Target Share of 10.9% (76th percentile).

As the favorite to ascend to Indianapolis' lead running back position next season, it would only take an injury to Frank Gore for Marlon Mack to suddenly become fantasy relevant in 2017. Mack sits in a perfect cat bird seat, with potential for both short- and long-term fantasy relevance.

WR Devin Funchess (Carolina)

The under-the-radar third-year wide receiver is primed for a big ascension. His 6’5” 230 lb. frame provides the perfect red zone target for quarterback Cam Newton. Funchess made an instant impact at the college level at Michigan and has been biding his time in Carolina just waiting for an opportunity. Funchess has started only 12 of 31 games in his two-year career.

While Kelvin Benjamin is clearly the Panthers go-to wide receiver, it would only take a quick start to the season for Funchess to become their top fantasy option with a WR2 floor. With Ted Ginn Jr. now in New Orleans, there are even more targets available in the passing game. Funchess is officially a starter for the Panthers but is still an underrated fantasy value with a current redraft ADP of 200.4 at WR70. A few strong games early in the season and Funchess could take a major leap forward for fantasy owners in 2017.

RB C.J. Prosise (Seattle)

The muddled Seattle backfield is a difficult one for fantasy owners to handicap, but C.J. Prosise owners should stay ready for his impending breakout. He is the most versatile running back on Seattle’s roster, ranking first among all running backs with 8.1 Yards Per Touch last season. At 6’0” 220 lbs., Prosise is destined to be a three-down workhorse RB in the NFL.

Per https://t.co/ulFG0wQ05V, #Seahawks C.J. Prosise = #1 among RBs YPT (8.1) & Catch Rate (89.5%). Also #3 in YPC after touch #DynastyTarget

— Mike Randle (@FtsyWarriorMike) August 3, 2017

His competition in Seattle features a very beatable duo of Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy. Rawls is in the last year of his original three-year contract as an undrafted free agent, and Lacy is under a one-year deal while struggling to make weight restrictions. Having just turned 23-years-old, Prosise remains just one step away from becoming the top RB option in a run-heavy Seattle offensive scheme for years to come.

RB D’Onta Foreman (Houston)

The Texans wanted Lamar Miller to become a true bell cow running back, but he simply isn’t good enough. Miller was sixth in the NFL in carries last season, yet ranked just 17th in PPR running back fantasy points per game with 13.8. While running behind a respectable offensive line that ranks 13th in run blocking efficiency, Miller consistently underperformed in favorable fantasy matchups. The only defense Miller truthers consistently provide is the “opportunity trumps all in fantasy” adage.

Once the Texans spent their 3rd round draft pick on D’Onta Foreman, however, that narrative changed. Foreman is 6’0” 233 lbs. and runs a 4.50-second 40-Yard dash. His 113.6 Speed Score (94th percentile) is the equivalent of Miller’s, but with 15 extra pounds on him. The most telltale sign that Foreman is a legitimate threat is that despite having an August court date for drug and weapons possession, the training camp reports remain glowing.

Just about everyone is raving bout rookie RB D'Onta Foreman. Getting arrested may have been the best thing that happened 2 him. He's serious

— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) July 31, 2017 

Rookie D’Onta Foreman is certainly “sitting pretty” in the ideal Houston Texans dynasty football catbird seat.

QB DeShone Kizer (Cleveland)

The Cleveland Browns are (finally) doing it right. After having 10 draft picks this past April, the Browns will enjoy 12 draft picks in the 2018 NFL Draft. They should not have to use any of those picks on a quarterback as it appears rookie DeShone Kizer will fill the role for years to come. The 6’4” 233 lb. Notre Dame product has been impressing everyone at Browns camp and may ascend from that cat bird seat much sooner than we thought.

DeShone Kizer moves closer to being named starter for preseason opener: #Browns QB competition recap https://t.co/1AscWo7eTS

— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) August 3, 2017

Kizer is working with a great offensive mind in head coach Hue Jackson and has weapons galore at his disposal. Both Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson provide versatility in the backfield, serving as efficient running and receiving options. Speedster Corey Coleman and veteran Kenny Britt are incredibly athletic wide receivers, while rookie tight end David Njoku is a future Pro Bowl level talent. The Browns supplemented these weapons by using the offseason to build the second best offensive line in the league as per Pro Football Focus.

While it is possible that quarterback Cody Kessler starts week one, it will not be long before DeShone Kizer is guiding a very young but talented Browns offense. He is the ideal dynasty league fantasy quarterback target.

The Fight Against Ageism: The Over-30 Stock Watch

Photo Credit: Jack Dempsey, Associated Press

The Fight Against Ageism: The Over-30 Stock Watch

By Kevin Cutillo (@wallycentral)

Progressively more often in fantasy football, and specifically more in the little niche that we refer to as dynasty, we are subject to several different types of biases. These biases can be very difficult to break. Perhaps you find yourself unwilling to forget when a player was originally selected in the NFL Draft, or maybe you’re stuck believing that running backs retain little value because of a shorter shelf life. There are even those out there who still think Devin Funchess is good at football. However, one of the biggest biases people encounter in the dynasty community is ageism. Ageism is rampant ‘round these parts and it can difficult to look past. We all want to grab that stud wide receiver when he is 22 years old, setting the world on fire a la Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014. You can expect to roster players like Beckham Jr. for a solid ten years, anticipating their value to grow over time; that’s the dream. In search of that dream, however, too often we forget to look at the old reliables; those players whose lives have stretched past the dreaded 30-year-old mark, the mark when we expect them to decline immediately after opening kickoff; causing our seasons to be ruined and setting our dynasties back several years.

It doesn’t have to be that way, and I’m here to help. I’m here to tell you that it’s okay to draft the older players sometimes. It’s okay if you’re fielding a team with a few players over the age of 30. I’m certainly not suggesting that you should target these players exclusively, but there is plenty of value in the veteran player pool and that it's not necessarily just for contenders. If you are building heavy through drafts this year, you may want to offset your roster with some players who are expected to perform at a high level for the next two to three years. This way, as your rookies and younger players develop, you will have the talent necessary to fill in positional gaps that you may have missed out on. 

In this article, I’m going to highlight several players I think you should target either in startup drafts or as trade targets because you might be able to get them at a favorable value as a result of their age. I will also share how long I predict their shelf life to be and with which type of roster I think you should add them to. Additionally, given the current value that you can acquire these players for, they should help your team not just this year, but in the following years as well. Oh, and just one quick note: I’m not including quarterbacks because well, most quarterbacks don’t peak until closer to the age of 30 anyway. So without further ado, let’s get started. Here are five players, over the age of thirty, who I believe will be great values this year (Note: ADP data courtesy of Dynasty League Football):

  

Larry Fitzgerald, WR Arizona Cardinals - Age 33

Checking in at number one on this list is one of my all-time favorite NFL players, Larry Fitzgerald. I know there have been many rumors over the last couple of years regarding Fitz hanging it up, but I’m not 100% convinced that this year will be his last. Even if it is, he’s still a great value considering that ADP has him in the 8th round of a 12-team startup draft. Fitzgerald also seems to be getting better, having found a niche in the twilight of his career while running out of the slot. In the last two seasons, Fitzgerald has caught 216 passes for 2,238 yards and 15 touchdowns. That is great production for a wide receiver who was 32 and 33 years old during that time, and it's good for WR2 numbers in standard scoring. Let me remind you, this is an 8th round pick we’re talking about! Not to mention, the range of outcomes for Fitz is relatively limited. Outside of his rookie year, he’s never had less than 71 receptions, 798 yards, and four touchdowns in a season in which he played 16 games. Those career lows came in 2012 during the John Skelton/Ryan Lindley/Kevin Kolb disaster. Don’t feel bad if you don’t remember who any of those players are by the way. They combined, along with a small effort from Brian Hoyer, to complete 55% of their passes for 3,300 yards and 11 touchdowns.

One final thought that I glossed over earlier, is that this season could potentially be Fitzgerald's last. While I do think I’ve laid out a fairly good argument in support of drafting him, there is a chance that he leaves Arizona next year to seek out a championship; unless the Cardinals somehow win one this year. Basically, the only thing Fitzgerald hasn’t attained in his career is a ring, and a guy who seemingly plays with an incredibly high-level of competition surely has something like that in his sights, right? Therefore, I believe you’re getting two years out of this future Hall of Famer and not only that, but that second year could be with a top-notch team going for the Lombardi. Target his great 8th round value in startup drafts or, if a team expected to contend with Larry on their roster begins to fall out of contention, send them some lower-level draft picks and see if they bite.

Brandon Marshall, WR New York Giants - Age 33

Remember all those things I just said about Larry Fitzgerald? Well, you could probably say some very similar things about Brandon Marshall. Both Marshall and Fitzgerald have finished as a WR1 six times in their careers. Both of them have scored double-digit touchdowns four times or more in their careers, and both of them have similar Touchdown Reception percentages; Marshall at 8.7% and Fitzgerald at 9.2%. Eerily, over their careers, both of these players have also averaged the same 12.8 Yards Per Reception over their careers. The prominent difference I see between these two is that Fitzgerald has had two successful seasons playing with a veteran quarterback after dreadful QB experiment hurt his earlier numbers. Meanwhile, Brandon Marshall just went through a similar dreadful QB experiment with the Jets, so his poor performance is more recent. It's also worth mentioning that Marshall is now a Giant and is playing with a veteran quarterback who's trying to win another title that would cap off a relatively successful career. Sound familiar?

I’m not asserting that this will be the exact same scenario, but I can assure you that the odds of Marshall putting up back-to-back 100-reception seasons over the next two years are favorable. As fantasy football players, we have to try to fight the recency bias (not as bad as ageism but it's close) and recognize that this is a talented player going to a team which threw the ball almost 600 times, 72 of which went to Victor Cruz who’s no longer with the team. Sure, I get that Odell Beckham Jr. runs the show in New York and that he’s going to eat, and I have recognized the fact that Marshall will be competing with second-year WR Sterling Shepard and a slew of tight ends, one of which includes 1st round pick Evan Engram, for targets. Even at age of 33 though, Brandon Marshall is the most talented of that group and should easily push for over 100 targets in 2017 and be a major threat in the red zone. A season similar to his shortened 2014, where on 106 targets he had 61 receptions, 721 yards, and 8 touchdowns, is probably his floor. Last year, those numbers would have been good for WR37 in PPR scoring. You can currently get him at WR52, just six spots behind Larry Fitzgerald.

Jonathan Stewart, RB Carolina Panthers - Age 30

Don’t get me wrong, I love Christian McCaffrey. I’m very excited about what he brings to the table and can’t wait to watch him play in an NFL game. In fact, I had him ranked as my third overall rookie coming out of that draft, despite thinking that Carolina was not the best landing spot for him. While I do think the Panthers are looking to change their scheme a little bit more and incorporate this talented rookie, I think it is far more likely that he steals carries from Cam Newton, Cameron Artis-Payne, Fozzy Whittaker, Mike Tolbert and Ted Ginn Jr. than steal them from Jonathan Stewart. Those five players combined for 232 carries last year. Obviously, Cam Newton will still get carries but I think their goal is for less than the 90 he got last year. Additionally, Cameron Artis-Payne is still with the team, but the bulk of his work occurs while Jonathan Stewart is out of the lineup; otherwise, he’s inactive.

I bring all of this up to support the opinion that Jonathan Stewart’s role in Carolina's offense might change a little. Although, I don’t think it's unreasonable to expect him to match or exceed the 218 carries he received in his 13 games last year. With those carries, he was able to amass 824 yards and 9 touchdowns, good for a RB22 finish, yet considered a down year for him. Not only did he miss three games, but he also played hurt in a few more. Additionally, the Panthers offensive line was brutal which as a result led him to produce the 2nd-worst Yards Per Carry average of his career, but again, I don’t see how it could get much worse. Maybe he scores fewer touchdowns and receives closer to 200 carries, but even if that were the case, his floor would be placed around the RB3 range. Currently, Stewart’s is being drafted as a low-end RB4--178th overall as the RB59.

The other thing I love about JStew in the dynasty format is his mileage. Even though he is 30 years old, he did split carries with DeAngelo Williams for a large portion of his career. Because of this, he has much more tread remaining on his tires than the typical 30-year-old running back. Stewart's 1,501 career carries are over 900 less than that of Adrian Peterson's, who is currently being drafted 50 spots higher. Obviously, their career arcs are a bit different but it speaks to the fact that Stewart may be able to squeeze out a couple more years as they bring along Christian McCaffrey.

Jason Witten, TE Dallas Cowboys - Age 35

I really wanted to discuss Jimmy Graham here, but this article is more about challenging ageism by finding value, and Graham is being drafted in the 7th round. In most formats, that’s about right for a guy like Graham who finished last season with 65 receptions on 95 targets for 923 yards and six touchdowns. Jason Witten, on the other hand, had 69 receptions on 95 targets for 673 receptions and 3 touchdowns. Witten finished as the TE14 while Graham finished as the TE4. Therefore, it’s clear to see the differences. However, Witten’s Yards Per Reception output in 2016 resulted in a half-yard less per reception than 2015's, which may have been a result of the change at quarterback and his first season with Dak Prescott. While Witten has never been a touchdown machine in his career, I think it’s fair to assume that Prescott will throw more touchdowns than the 25 he threw last year, resulting in an increase in Witten's touchdown numbers as well.

Just like the other players on this list, something to keep in mind when it comes to Witten is his draft value. Despite the fact that Witten has scored outside the top 12 tight ends only once since his 2003 rookie season, he is currently being drafted 195th overall as the 25th tight end off the board. This is great value for a guy who could easily be a TE1 for most of the season. I suggest pairing Witten with one of the second-year players who have a shot at breaking out either this season or next (personally, I’m a big Austin Hooper fan). This would allow you to spend your first nine picks on other positions and still grant you the opportunity at acquiring a TE1 for the next decade. Considering Dallas just signed Witten to a four-year contract extension, my guess is that he will be around for at least three of them.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR Denver Broncos - Age 30

What more does a guy like Emmanuel Sanders have to do to get people to start showing him some respect? In each of the last three years, Manny has accumulated at least 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns and has never finished lower than a WR2. Yet again, he is being drafted as a low-end WR3 this offseason. I understand that Sanders isn't as young or electrifying as guys like Martavis Bryant, Tyreek Hill, Corey Coleman or Josh Doctson, but he does carry noticeably less risk and you’re spending less to acquire him. You can lock him in for a solid year of production and still expect him to finish as a WR2.

You may question how I am so sure that Sanders will produce similarly to the numbers he put up last year. Well, anyone who has watched a Denver Broncos game recently knows that their offense is not their strong suit. They are conservative, balanced, and rely on their defense to keep their opponents' scores low.  Their quarterback play is less than stellar and playing conservatively helps limit that exposure. At first thought, this appears to be a negative for Sanders, who is typically the second option behind Demaryius Thomas. However, it’s been this way for the past two seasons and Sanders still finished as a WR2 for each of them. My point is, even if Denver's offense doesn’t change or improve much in the passing game, Sanders' role is pretty much carved out and I expect more of the same from him.

Additionally, this speaks to Sanders' potential longevity. With a Broncos defense primed for championships, it’s only a matter of time before VP of Football Operations John Elway decides to do something about the quarterback position to help bring his team back to glory. Manny is signed through 2019 and I can certainly envision him holding this steady in value and production for at least three more seasons.

Honorable Mention:

Ted Ginn Jr., WR New Orleans Saints - Age 32

LeGarrette Blount, RB Philadelphia Eagles - Age 30

Julian Edelman, WR New England Patriots - Age 31

Desean Jackson, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Age 30

Jimmy Graham, TE Seattle Seahawks - Age 30

Buy or Sell: Hyped Players (NFL Preseason)

Photo Credit: Jae C. Hong, Associated Press

Buy or Sell: Hyped Players (NFL Preseason)

By Riley Bymaster (@DTC_RileyB)

With Training Camps nearing an end, and Preseason games at our fingertips suggest that meaningful football is close and knocking at our doors. Every offseason, there are a handful of players who generate a lot more hype and attention than their peers. Despite this trend recurring every year, these hyped players see their dynasty stocks skyrocket until their prices become so incredibly high, that they are unable to ever reach an output that warrants the cost, even if they do happen to perform well during the regular season.

Here is a list of players currently being hyped throughout this year’s offseason that includes whether you should buy or sell them for the 2017 fantasy season:

Marcus Mariota, QB – TEN

Arguably no other NFL quarterback was helped more this offseason than the Flyin’ Hawaiian, Marcus Mariota himself. With newly acquired weapons in Corey Davis and Eric Decker, the Titans are gearing up to make a run at a title this season.

Despite being a run-heavy offense, Mariota’s efficiency will allow him to flirt with mid-QB1 numbers in 2017, making this decision easy for me.

Verdict: Buy

Christian McCaffrey, RB – CAR

In a strange parallel, no player was hyped more in the months leading up to the NFL Draft, Rookie Camp, and Training Camp than Christian McCaffrey. He adds a new dimension to the Carolina offense, which leaves dynasty Twitter drooling over the untapped potential.

Although the talent is there and the offense seems to be ready to surge, McCaffrey is part of an offense with *insert Donald Trump voice* “yuuuuuugggeee” receiving weapons (literally, Kelvin Benjamin) who will consistently see targets. Jonathan Stewart, whether anyone believes it or not, is still very much alive. McCaffrey will be a solid fantasy running back for a long time, but will he live up to the hype this season and be a stud fantasy contributor? Nah.

Verdict: Sell

Joe Williams, RB – SF

This 4th round pick is automatically nominated for biggest riser during dynasty rookie drafts. Once completely off the radar, Joe Williams and his explosive long speed are now a 2nd round rookie pick, ultimately garnering truly unreachable expectations for 2017 and beyond.

I know, I know. Kyle Shanahan pounded his fist for Williams during the draft, but the San Francisco offense is not going to be that good, making it difficult for a rookie running to do much of anything this season. At his current price, I would much rather gamble on Kapri Bibbs for 2017.

Verdict: Sell

Ty Montgomery, RB – GB

The Green Bay running game has been nothing but glorified musical chairs over the years. We thought we had a winner in Eddie Lacy, but he discovered "China food" shortly into his regimen. A converted wide receiver, Ty Montgomery switched positions and slotted to running back during the 2016 season. From everything we’ve heard this summer, he is the go-to guy at running back for the Packers this season.

Though he is proclaimed to be “the guy,” Montgomery only had one game last season where he rushed for over 60 yards. It happened in Week 13 when he rushed for 162 yards against a depleted Bears defense that started half of their bench that week. With talented rookie running backs Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones on the verge of pushing for snaps, Montgomery’s chances of living up to expectations are slimming by the day hour.

Verdict: Sell

DeVante Parker, WR – MIA

Once a highly-touted prospect from the 2015 draft class, DeVante Parker hasn’t seen his value dip too drastically over the past two and a half years. Every offseason since, he seems to pick up steam, but soon disappoints once the season rolls around. This year is no different. He is receiving rave reviews from coaches, beat writers, and his fan club on dynasty twitter.

Parker is coming into year three and might be finally figuring things out in the NFL. With Ryan Tannehill undergoing season-ending ACL surgery, look for Matt Moore or Smokin’ Jay Cutler to take over Miami's offense and provide Parker with a deserving number of targets.

Verdict: Buy

Terrelle Pryor, WR – WAS

Terrelle Pryor is entering his first season as a Washington Redskin and is looking to build a connection with quarterback Kirk Cousins in his first summer with the team. Multiple videos have surfaced of Pryor making one-handed circus catches with a defender in his face. Pryor signed only a one-year deal this offseason, likely showing that even the Redskins were a bit skeptical of his outlook after his breakout 2016 season.

If he were the only talented receiver on the team my answer would be different, but Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed, and second-year receiver Josh Doctson will be competing against each other for targets from Kirk Cousins. Could he be a solid, low-end WR3 this year? Absolutely, but will he be a middling WR1 like everyone expects him to? I doubt it.

Verdict: Sell

Tyreek Hill, WR – KC

With Jeremy Maclin cut before Training Camp, the Chiefs receiving corps went from thin and depleted to “can Travis Kelce play WR and TE at the same time?” Tyreek Hill broke out last season and averaged a touchdown once every 9.44 touches, which do not include his kick and punt returns.

At an unsustainable rate, what does the subtraction of Maclin do? It makes everyone assume Hill will garner even more touches. Alex Smith is no Aaron Rodgers, so why does everyone assume Hill is going to be the guy who catches 90 passes and scores 37 touchdowns? I have no idea.

Verdict: Sell

Kenny Golloday, WR – DET

Most people thought the Lions reached in this year’s draft to take Kenny Golloday, but once the regular season rolls around, that may not be the case anymore. With the departure of Anquan Boldin, quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions have a hole in this year’s offense. Enter Kenny Golloday.

Golladay's long and lanky body type will allow him to be an immediate and legitimate red zone threat. Expect Golden Tate and Marvin Jones to still be the main targets on the outside, but Golloday slots in as an immediate red zone threat with the potential to catch at least 5-6 touchdowns in year one.

Verdict: Buy

Nelson Agholor, WR – PHI

It seems like a decade ago that this USC receiver was a 1st round NFL pick and top 10 rookie pick in dynasty drafts. Struggling to retain the mental aspect of the game, Nelson Agholor did not see the field much in his rookie season or this past season. Although he has yet to put everything together, he is entering his third year in a young and upcoming offense.

With crisp route running and great athleticism, Agholor should have ample opportunities to prove himself worthy, despite the acquisition of Alshon Jeffery this offseason. Based on the reports coming out of camp this summer, Agholor has looked great and seems to be ready to break out in 2017. Additionally, the Jordan Matthews trade could be a strong vote of confidence for Agholor from the Eagles organization. At his current price, count me in.

Verdict: Buy

OJ Howard, TE – TB

Some people are already deeming OJ Howard a Pro Bowl tight end, despite never playing a down of regular season NFL football. Others are saying the exact same thing. The Tampa Bay offense seems as if it is on the verge of becoming deadly and unstoppable. quarterback Jameis Winston finds himself loaded with offensive weapons and a solid, reliable defense.

Though Howard will most likely be a solid player and fantasy contributor for years to come, these outrageously high expectations will be nearly impossible for Howard to reach. Did everyone forget about Cameron Brate? I say Brate outscores Howard by 33% total points in 2017. Bet. [Editor’s Note: You’re on, Riley!]

Verdict: Sell

Training Camp Roundup | Week 1

Photo Credit: Jim Mone, Associated Press

Training Camp Roundup | Week 1

By Taylor Towle (@realffbandit)

Will Fuller Breaks His Collarbone

Another year in the offseason program, a rededication towards improving his drop issues, and an exciting rookie QB to generate renewed hype in the speedster, Will Fuller was beginning to look like a sneaky post-hype buy. Then, news broke last Wednesday that he suffered a broken collarbone. Early reports out of Houston set a timetable for Fuller's return at 5-8 weeks, meaning he will be out of commission for the rest of camp, and potentially, the first quarter of the season.

Advice: In the short term, it’s concerning that he’s missing valuable time to develop chemistry with Deshaun Watson and Tom Savage early. Additionally, collarbone injuries, to include reacquiring a complete and natural range of motion, can be difficult to recover from. Still, this is merely a drop in the bucket for Fuller’s career and the fact that he didn’t injure anything that would impact his trademark speed in the long-term is noteworthy. Fuller's current ADP sits somewhere around 120th overall, a price that could be acquired with a mid-to-late 2nd round rookie pick. At an already decent value, acquiring him for anything less than that could be a steal. Lastly, a possible beneficiary from Fuller's injury and a sneaky player to target in leagues could be CJ Fiedorowicz. Albeit, in a limited sample last year, his reception and yardage numbers increased when Fuller was not in the lineup last year and an inexperienced QB might enjoy checking down to his tight end often.

Dalvin Cook Impresses Early in Camp

Once nearing consensus 1.01 rookie draft pick status, Dalvin Cook’s poor performance at the Combine and off-field concerns likely resulted in him falling into the second round of the NFL draft, raining on his fantasy parade. Since then, the reviews of Cook have been nothing short of spectacular. Throughout the offseason, beat writers, coaches, and most recently teammates, have been heaping praise on the way the rookie has handled himself and how he has looked in padless practices.

Advice: Cook’s fall from the top always seemed a bit “overreaction-y,” but if we were to believe all the pre-Draft reports, it may have been just plain dumb. What should be exciting for owners is the 100% consistency of positive reviews since May, with words like “special” and “workhorse,” being tossed around by a group accustomed to watching Adrian Peterson go through the same drills. Cook seems to be a lock for #1 RB duties in Minnesota with Latavius Murray still on the mend, so the early projections for 200-300 carries shouldn't be out of the question. If you don’t already have Cook rostered, it’s worth checking if his owner still values him as a mid-1st round rookie pick and if so, pouncing on the opportunity.

Kevin White Struggling with Confidence

After only two uninspiring seasons in the league, the one-time humble phenom Kevin White has generated the label of bust within the fantasy community. White needed a strong camp to build trust with his new QB, and re-establish himself as the Bears future WR1. Instead, he is reportedly letting his past failures get to his head. Though disputed by White himself, he apparently resorted to watching old college highlights with teammates and coaches to try and regain his mojo.

Advice: Sell. Sell for anything close to what he was obtained for and you’ll be getting a good return on investment. Realistically, acquiring a future 2nd round rookie pick, or a player like Quincy Enunwa, Kenny Britt, and the aforementioned Will Fuller, could be considered a favorable return. Even though he saw significant targets in limited action last year, his catch rate numbers paint the picture of an inefficient WR who will likely struggle to produce now that Cameron Meredith has taken over alpha status among Chicago's receivers. Speaking of Meredith, the 24-year-old second-year undrafted free agent from Illinois State who is already said to be developing chemistry with new QB Mike Glennon, appears to be a great buy now in anticipation of his value climbing. His recent ADP is pushing up into a more realistic range considering he was on a 200+ PPR point pace last year, but if the owner in your league will accept a future 2nd round pick or a player like Jordan Matthews or CJ Anderson, it’s a worthwhile investment.

Carlos Hyde is No Longer Going to be Cut

Always a somewhat laughable notion, the reports of Carlos Hyde’s loosening grip on his roster spot and the starting gig in San Francisco's backfield started to die down once the “meaningful” practices started. Joe Williams has struggled to pick up the offense, Tim Hightower received some first team reps due to his familiarity with the offense but has since taken a backseat, and fliers such as Matt Breida and Kyle Juszczyk have been quiet thus far. Meanwhile, Hyde has garnered great reviews and has been looking explosive and versatile in Kyle Shanahan's offense.

Advice: Fear is a great motivator. Any owner who is still wary of the hand-picked rookie overcoming Hyde’s status in the pecking order may still be looking to unload at a discount. At just 25-years-old, Hyde was on a 1200-yard pace last year, averaging a career-best 4.55 yards per carry. Now, he gets to be the lead dog in the same offense that brought us Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Injuries have always been Hyde’s undoing, but after losing weight this offseason, perhaps he will be better equipped to survive a 16-game slate. At a position where injuries are almost expected, acquiring Hyde for an unproven player like Ameer Abdullah should be a no-brainer. Even swapping an aging veteran like DeMarco Murray is a gamble worth considering that could pay off over the next 4 years.

Jordan Reed Held Out of Practice Due to Toe Injury

The hits just keep on coming. A toe injury that bothered Jordan Reed for much of last season is flaring up again. Though it’s not thought to be serious at this point, any injury news for Reed is troublesome. A veteran with his injury report track record missing practice is typically not concerning for production purposes, but the fact that this issue is seemingly lingering into this season casts further doubt on the notion that he will be operating at 100% in 2017.

Advice: This is tough because while this isn’t a major injury issue by any means, it’s news that isn’t encouraging to hear for a Reed owner, who likely wishes for just one season without an issue. Reed is a difference maker at the TE position, being one of only three or four capable of putting up a 220+ PPR point season. That type of advantage is hard to cast aside. However, with the influx of young talent coming into the tight end position, this year might be a good time to sell relatively high on the oft-injured stud and gain some peace of mind. Recent ADP has young up-and-comers such as Hunter Henry, and the three rookie wunderkinds, OJ Howard, Evan Engram, and David Njoku, 30-40 spots below Reed. That’s enough to warrant asking for a contender’s 1st round rookie pick and an additional player like Eric Decker or Adam Thielen. Not only will a trade like this keep your team competitive, but it is also retooling it for the future.