Your Last Chance to Acquire Dalvin Cook at a Reasonable Price

Photo Credit: Jim Mone, Associated Press

Your Last Chance to Acquire Dalvin Cook at a Reasonable Price

By Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL)

(Performance metrics were gathered from Player Profiler and ADP data was derived from Dynasty League Football)

Dalvin Cook’s dynasty value has been on a roller coaster since February. He started off as the “locked-in” #1 rookie pick in dynasty by many film grinders and college football fans. However, after flopping at the combine with a 71st percentile Height-Adjusted Speed Score, a 9th percentile Burst Score (Broad Jump & Vertical Jump), and a 10th percentile Agility Score (3-cone), his value tanked.

Dalvin Cook | PlayerProfiler.com

Due to Cook’s lackluster combine, he was being selected as the 2nd player off the board in rookie drafts behind Leonard Fournette. On draft day, the Minnesota Vikings decided to trade up in the 2nd round and select Cook with the 41st pick. Being drafted by the Vikings didn't help his value downfall; it cratered all the way down to 5th overall rookie pick. This is where it lies now, a startup ADP hovering around 38th overall as the RB13. Despite the drop in ADP, now is the perfect time to trade for Cook. Based on his cost and the role he will play for the Vikings this season, now may be the last chance you will have to acquire Dalvin Cook at a reasonable price.

Offensive Line Injuries

Comprehending Cook’s potential begins with understanding the Vikings 2016 season. Last season, the Minnesota Vikings had the most-injured offensive line in the NFL per Football Outsiders. Ultimately, they were a terrible unit because the fact they were injured. Per Cian Fahey (@Cianaf), the Minnesota Vikings were just one of two teams in the NFL to have zero of their linemen play 90% of offensive snaps last season. To support the notion that offensive line continuity is important, the two teams who had all five of their linemen play 90% of offensive snaps were the Falcons and Patriots. The Vikings added Mike Remmers and Riley Reiff to their offensive line and let go of ex-starters Matt Kalil and Brandon Fusco. If their offensive line stays healthy, they are projected to be a slightly above average unit. Going into this season, the Vikings offensive line is ranked 14th by Pro Football Focus and 17th by FantasyPros.

Schedule

Beyond improved offensive line play, the Vikings will go against the 5th-easiest opposing rushing defense schedule according to Sharp Football Stats' Rush DEF Blend. This metric combines rushing efficiency, explosive rushes, and RB pass efficiency.

Vikings Rush DEF Blend | Sharp Football Stats

Cook will encounter juicy matchups all year, as he is scheduled to play against defensive units projected in the bottom 10 of Rush DEF Blend seven times, and meets defensive units projected to be among the top 10 just three times. Combining this with the fact that the Vikings have the 2nd-easiest schedule versus opposing defenses, suggests the Vikings may have opportunities to execute their gameplan consistently and therefore, should not be forced to run or pass excessively.

Competition for Touches

Cook’s competition for touches this season is Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon. Many people were surprised when the Vikings drafted Dalvin Cook because they had just signed Latavius Murray to a 3-year, $15-million contract. Digging deeper into the details of it, you may see that Murray's contract is just a backup plan if Cook just doesn’t pan out, and includes only one year of guaranteed money. If Cook plays well, it’s highly unlikely the Vikings retain Murray past this season. He still figures to be Cook’s biggest competition for touches this season, but he’s been injured all offseason, but luckily was just activated off the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. Coach Mike Zimmer lacked confidence about Murray in a late July press conference when he said, “I haven’t seen Latavius other than on tape.” Comparing this to when offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur said, “you see him do a lot of things really well" and "he’s going to have a bright future” when referring to Cook, makes me wonder how much Murray will play, if at all. It seems unlikely that Murray carves out much of a role unless he impresses his coaches in these weeks leading up to the season, or if Cook begins to struggle.

Potential Usage

Besides having great reviews from coaches in practice, Cook had some good moments in his two preseason games. Some people don’t think preseason play should be considered, but monitoring snaps and usage on a team’s first few drives can give you an edge at understanding players and their respective teams. In his first preseason game, Cook had 5 carries for 13 yards and recorded 4 catches for 30 yards, with another catch that was called back for holding. While he wasn’t very efficient, he was utilized early and often, especially on "Sammy Sleeves'" favorite throw, the check down. In his second preseason game, Cook was once again used as the bell cow, racking up 7 carries for 40 yards and 1 catch for 10 yards. Through two preseason games so far, Cook has registered 17 touches in slightly over a half a game of snaps.

Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is implementing a zone-blocking scheme this season, something Cook was successful with at Florida State. Shurmur’s play calling also has the running back involved in the passing game by means of dump off and screen passes. With the combination of Sam Bradford’s lack of aggressiveness and Shurmur’s scheming, Cook should be involved in the passing game more than most would expect.

Many rookie running backs aren’t often involved in the passing game because they are inexperienced in pass protection. While this was said to be one of Cook’s weaknesses coming out of college, Graham Barfield’s (@GrahamBarfield) Yards Created studies show Cook ranked 4th-best in Pass Protection Execution Rate (PPE) among all 2017 draft-eligible running backs. He’s already shown a glimpse of these capabilities in his first preseason game after successfully picking up a blitzing linebacker. If he can continue to do this consistently, he should see a lot of playing time in 2017.

2017

Cook appears to be a bell cow running back who will start from week one, and dominate both the backfield rushing and receiving work for the Minnesota Vikings. Behind a mended offensive line, and forecasted to meet an easy opposing rush defense schedule, it's easy to project Dalvin Cook to have a solid rookie season. If projections were to become reality, come next offseason, his price would rise even higher. Cook is an ideal trade target at the moment because you could secure instant RB2 production from him this season and as a result, could make him a near lock for top 10 dynasty startup running back status next offseason. There are some owners who had their hand forced in dynasty rookie drafts this offseason when Dalvin Cook “fell” to them while they hoped for Christian McCaffrey or Joe Mixon. Offering a 2018 1st round rookie pick for Cook today is a proposal that may appear beneficial for both parties involved. Therefore, begin sending out similar offers as soon as possible because this may be the last time Cook can be acquired for a reasonable price.